December 8, 2022

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below the realized price index which is currently at $21,400. A decisive retracement of this level is likely to determine the bottom of the market.

Price achieved is an on-chain indicator that measures the price of BTC the last time it moved instead of the current price. In turn, it reduces the value of coins and lost coins that have not moved for a long period of time.

Famous Analyst and Trader MustafaHosny Oh God, Amen Tweet a price chart and achieved price, showing that the former has fallen below the latter. This means that a large number of buyers are at a loss and it is a sign associated with bear markets.

Previous History

The actual Bitcoin price has fallen five times from the achieved price since 2011. This happened in August 2011, January 2015, July 2018, March 2020 and July 2022 (the black circles).

These movements have been linked to the bottoms of the Bitcoin market. However, the periods during which this downward decline occurred varied.

  • 2011 – 110 days
  • 2015 – 240 days
  • 2018 – 115 days
  • 2020-8 days
  • 2022 – 100 days so far

Although there is no consensus on the number of days that the price of BTC remains below its actual price, it appears that once Bitcoin regains its achieved price, this is a sign of a bottom.

Plus, with the exception of 2011, it always took less than 100 days after the first dip to reach the bottom, even if it wasn’t confirmed until BTC regained the achieved price.

current reading

Bitcoin price has been below the achieved price for 100 days now. All this time, I tried to recover the achieved price and even traded slightly above it but has since fallen below it.

Therefore, if there are any previous readings to go through, the bottom will not be confirmed, but may have been reached.

BTC حركة movement

As for price action, BTC created a bearish candlestick with a long upper wick on September 21st (red icon). The candle triggered a breakdown below the $19,000 support area and invalidated all gains from the bullish hammer on September 19 (green symbol).

Therefore, while the daily RSI is still bullish, since the bullish divergence trendline is still intact, there is no horizontal support below the current price. Conversely, the $19,000 area is now expected to provide resistance.

For a short-term movement, it is possible for bitcoin to trade inside a bearish wedge and complete a final diagonal in the process. This bullish divergence is supported by the RSI and the highly volatile movement.

If true, Bitcoin will bounce back towards $20,000 before another drop which will barely lead to a new yearly low.

This move fits in with the long-term count and complements the ongoing correction since the all-time high (white).

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